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Uncertainty at ECORISK2050

On June 30th 2020 I gave a MOOC lecture at the ECORISK 2050 training network about How to become a master of being uncertain in scientific assessments. My intention was to talk about the need to consider and communicate uncertainty in scientific assessments of risk and create a curiosity to know more.

Some recommendations to become a master of being uncertain and help out on future risk assessments:

  • Acknowledge that you are always uncertain
  • Gain an understanding of concepts of uncertainty
  • Separate uncertainty as a concept from how you express it
  • Critically evaluate how uncertainty is being treated today
  • Learn Bayesian inference 
  • Learn several methods to deal with uncertainty
  • Study scientific literature on the communication and visualisation of uncertainty

To illustrate the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty for the same outcome space : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, we produced these GIFs (click and they will move). You are welcome to use them

Ullrika Sahlin

aleatory dice uncertainty
Aleatory uncertainty or variability is inherent randomness
Epistemic knowledge based uncertainty
Epistemic uncertainty is subjective, my uncertainty about the number on the paper is different from yours.
July 1, 2020

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RISKUT – a conference for us teaching risk

RISKUT is a conference organised by the Swedish society for risk sciences (Riskkollegiet). This year (2020) it will be held online on September 22nd. The conference is held in Swedish. In 2021 we plan to have it in English.

Check out the call and info at this link (including a wrap up from last years program)

Program 

09.00 Välkommen

Risk på  distans – Göran Bengtsson, professor emeritus vid Lunds universitet

Högriskläkemedel inom barnsjukvården  – Per Nydert, Karolinska universitetssjukhuset

Att undervisa om betingade sannolikheter – Johan Bring, Statisticon.

Vilket perspektiv på risk passar en pandemi? – Ullrika Sahlin, biträdande lektor vid Lunds universitet

Rollspel som verktyg i riskkurser? – Mattias Lantz, Uppsala universitet.

ca 11.00 Lärdomar från en pågående pandemi – diskussion med inbjudna gäster om behov  av utbildning på risk för att möta nuvarande och framtida risker samt hur vi kan använda pandemin i undervisning. 

Avslut

Välkommen att registrera dig här.

See you there

Ullrika Sahlin – on behalf of Riskkollegiet

May 29, 2020

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Welcome to a workshop about using Rmarkdown to generate reports

On September 9th 2020 we will host a workshop about using Rmarkdown to generate reports. This is a highly applicable tool that can generate reports saved in various formats such as pdf, html, word or latex – even with references – from the R interface.

The workshop is free and registration is required. Sign up here (link to Skåne UserR group).

We welcome graduate students at undergraduate to graduate levels who wants to get introduced into using Rmarkdown. It is useful to have some experience in R, but it is not necessary.

RmarkdownworkshopThis workshop with the exiting name “Dynamic documents drilldown: writing reproducible reports for fun and for profit” will occur Wednesday, September 9, 2020, 12:00-16:00 at the Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37, at Lund University.

It is hosted by Dmytro Perepolkin and Ullrika Sahlin (centre of environmental and climate research).

May 28, 2020

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Congratulations to Ivette for a successful mid-term PhD seminar

Robust analysis of uncertainty in scientific assessments

This was the topic of the mid-term seminar for PhD student Ivette Raices Cruz (PhD student in Environmental Science at Lund University) on May 26th.

Abstract

Knowledge is always limited, and therefore is honest to communicate uncertainty when presenting scientific conclusions in scientific assessments. In her PhD project, Ivette Raices Cruz is studying the possibility to use robust Bayesian analysis to treat uncertainty in scientific assessments. Both Bayesian and Robust Bayesian analysis are useful to quantity uncertainty when making inference from data and experts. Ivette work is a contribution to evidence synthesis and quantitative risk assessment, by developing the methodology for Robust Bayesian analysis, and applying and comparing different ways to quantify uncertainty on existing assessment.

What happened

Ivette started with an overview of her PhD project. After that the midterm opponent, Jukka Ranta, from University of Helsinki and Finnish Food Authority, asked questions and made reflections on the topic. The seminar was on zoom and as you can see, Ivette kept the distance.

seminarviewDepartment representative is Pål Axel Ohlsson, Department of Biology

Main supervisor is Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research

May 10, 2020

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Visualisation of COVID-19 risk perception data

Researchers at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication have published a study comparing people’s attitudes towards the risk of coronavirus, and their governments’ reactions (link to study DOI). The study compare risk perception in ten countries around the world.

This data is publicly available. We have made a visualisation of the data, including data collected after the first survey round. At this point, eleven countries are included (Australia, China, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Sweden and the US). In this visualisation, we combine responses from surveys repeated over time in the same country.

Link to visualisation in English

Link to visualisation in Swedish

The purpose of the visualisation is to make it easier to get an overview of information in data and we let data speak for itself.

We have also done a summary of the Swedish data, where we compare the responses collected in March and April.

Link to visualisation of Swedish data (in Swedish)

Contact: Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se

The visualisation was made by Dmytro Perepolkin PhD student at Lund University

May 6, 2020

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Book seminar – Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management

Join us when we pick up the tradition to read the complete book by Mark Burgman “Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management”. This is an excellent book introducing a lot of useful concepts and thinking about modelling of risk and uncertainty and provide relevant methods for supporting decision making. A good starter that is worth reading many times. Suitable for PhD students in environmental science. We will meet (online) at two occasions (end of May and beginning of June) and present chapters to each other.  Dates and distribution of chapters will be decided when we know who wants to attend.

Contact Ullrika Sahlin if you want to join (before May 19).

May 6, 2020

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Bayesian Evidence Synthesis at SETAC Dublin 2020

This year at European SETAC conference, Ullrika dropped the news that Bayesian Evidence Synthesis can, not only embed the quantitative uncertainty analysis where uncertainty is expressed by subjective probability, but also merge the traditions of treating uncertainty in Evidence-Based Decision Making and Quantitative Risk Assessment.  The talk recorded for SETAC 2020 Dublin can be found here

Bayesian Evidence Synthesis as a framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of scientific assessments.

 

 

May 5, 2020

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Föreläsningar om risk

The Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet) arrange seminars and workshops (usually in Swedish) on different places in Sweden. The most recent one was in Uppsala on the 4th of December. 

Föreläsningarna filmades och ligger nu på vår youtube-kanal

Riskförmiddag med Riskkollegiet

March 4, 2020

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Nominera till Riskkollegiets juniora pris

Alla med intresse för risk- och säkerhetsfrågor inbjuds nu att nominera kandidater till 2020 års pris ”The Swedish Risk Academy Award to a Young Researcher”

Riskkollegiet är en ideell förening vars syfte är att öka kunskapen om risker i samhället, och om hur risker uppfattas och hanteras i olika sammanhang. I enlighet med sitt syfte delar Riskkollegiet årligen ut ett pris för att hedra och uppmärksamma personer som genom sin forskning bidrar till att öka kunskapen om risker.

Nu utlyses 2020 års pris, The Swedish Risk Academy Award to a Young Researcher. Det ska gå till en yngre forskare vars forskning har relevans för Riskkollegiets syfte och vilken i sin forskning visat god initiativförmåga, engagemang och vetenskaplig mognad. Forskaren skall vara doktorand eller nydisputerad forskare (disputation 2018 eller 2019 i Sverige).

Nomineringen skall innehålla:

  • Den nominerades namn, titel på avhandling och disputationsdatum
  • En kort beskrivning av den nominerades forskning
  • En motivering till nominering
  • En förteckning över den nominerades publikationer
  • Kontaktuppgifter till den som nominerar

Skicka din nominering till Riskkollegiet vi följande formulär bit.ly/2QLK1Yo senast den 17 december 2019. Styrelsens beslut om pristagare kommer att beredas av Riskkollegiets vetenskapliga råd.

Priset delas ut på Riskkollegiets årsmöte och består av en plakett jämte ett stipendium om 8 000 kr. I samband med prisutdelningen förväntas pristagaren ge en presentation av sin forskning.

Eventuella frågor om priset och nomineringsprocessen kan ställas till Ullrika Sahlin, ordförande i Riskkollegiets styrelse, e-post: Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se.

November 28, 2019

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