Uncertainty at ECORISK2050

On June 30th 2020 I gave a MOOC lecture at the ECORISK 2050 training network about How to become a master of being uncertain in scientific assessments. My intention was to talk about the need to consider and communicate uncertainty in scientific assessments of risk and create a curiosity to know more.

Some recommendations to become a master of being uncertain and help out on future risk assessments:

  • Acknowledge that you are always uncertain
  • Gain an understanding of concepts of uncertainty
  • Separate uncertainty as a concept from how you express it
  • Critically evaluate how uncertainty is being treated today
  • Learn Bayesian inferenceĀ 
  • Learn several methods to deal with uncertainty
  • Study scientific literature on the communication and visualisation of uncertainty

To illustrate the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty for the same outcome space : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, we produced these GIFs (click and they will move). You are welcome to use them

Ullrika Sahlin

aleatory dice uncertainty
Aleatory uncertainty or variability is inherent randomness
Epistemic knowledge based uncertainty
Epistemic uncertainty is subjective, my uncertainty about the number on the paper is different from yours.
July 1, 2020

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