This is a question we asked many times last Saturday when the Uncertainty Show was given for the first time.

The show relies on people coming up on stage trying to be uncertain.

They compete against a computer, theory or others.

A lot of people tried our computer games about uncertainty.

Ivette, Maria, Ullrika and Rasmus – happy after making so many people uncertain.

The research Group Uncertainty and Evidence Lab at the Centre of Environmental and Climate Research are looking for a suitable candidate for a new PhD position.

The aim of the PhD project will to study the importance of uncertainty in environmental management. This includes the treatment of uncertainty into scientific assessments and considering in what way decision makers respond to uncertainty. The impact of uncertainty will be studied by ecological-economic modelling focusing in solving environmental decision problems. The project includes a case-study on geese management in agricultural landscapes, representing a spatial-temporal ecological-economic system with several and different types of agents, both human (farmers) as well as ecological agents (geese).

Read more here about the position and how to apply.

Last day to apply is October 1st 2018.

The art of being uncertain is the name of our new mini-show, which has its premiere on September the 15th at the Lund University Science Festival.

PLACE: ASTRONOMIHUSET, SÖLVEGATAN 27 11.00–17:00

Through games and challenges, you will learn more about different ways to express uncertainty and how uncertainty influences us as human beings.

This is an attempt to reach out with the fascinating stuff and important things to know about uncertainty. The people behind the show are Ullrika Sahlin and Rasmus Bååth.

The program for the Science festival Naturvetarstråket contains a lot of activites for a curious mind.

There will be possibilities to play games about uncertainty. These games are available on Android from google app store. The apps are found by searching for UncertainGames. There are five English (Quiztimate, BeanGuesser, ProbabilityGuess, Probability Bee and FrequencyGuesser) and one Swedish game (Gisso).

The games are also possible to download for windows and mac.
https://uncertaingames.itch.io/

Exploring the risk, safety, security and resilience nexus

Risk, safety, security and resilience analysis and management are founded on similar ideas and perspectives: avoiding or reducing the negative consequences of hazardous events and threats, exploring system weaknesses, and identifying policies and actions to mitigate or resolve such weaknesses. However, current research and practices in these areas are to a large extent disconnected and rooted in separated ‘schools’, providing guidance in different directions.  For instance, many researchers, practitioners and organisations have called for a shift from risk to resilience. In what ways, however, may risk and resilience represent conflicting perspectives? Or could it be argued that resilience analysis is a main strategy within risk management? Efforts have been made to develop more unified approaches and methods, but how best to proceed to change the current situation?

The conference theme addresses the risk, safety, security and resilience nexus. We seek contributions that can provide new insights on this topic, in particular theories, principles, approaches and methods that can enhance the development of more integrated perspectives.

The 4th SRA Nordic Chapter conference aims to explore the status quo and the future directions of risk research. The conference wishes to harness its broad, interdisciplinary expertise by gathering researchers from academic institutions and practitioners from the risk, safety, security and resilience communities. We intend to build networks and discuss the most pressing issues within this area of research. The conference gathers academics, policy makers, and other professionals interested in risk research, policy, and practice.

The conference is organised in collaboration with ESRA Norway. We are pleased to announce that all participants at this conference will automatically become members of SRA worldwide and SRA Europe!

For additional nformation about the conference (including instructions for submitting abstracts), please see the conference website.

Uncertainty is more important than ever. Not only are problems of today more complex and urgent, but there is also a need to combine different types of knowledge and weight things together. In order to give scientific advice we must train our ability to state what we dont know.

The uncertainty and evidence lab are working on taking these type of questions seriously.

Games as measuring instruments

The games to explain what it means to express uncertainty have been developed further into not only amusement and teaching but also as measurement instruments of peoples ability to express their own uncertainty.

We have started to explore the possibility to makes the games available for phones to improve testing and their use for research. Two versions are on Google app store: Probability bee and quiztimate. So far there are only solutions for Android up and running.

Take part of the discussion

Many risk Conferences bring up the issue of uncertainty. Such as this one. Will I see you there?

Keep posted

Early detection and recommendation of higher precision in treatment of late blight in potato crops by using drone photos is the title of a Master Thesis by Anna Lindéus at the Risk Master program at Lund University (LTH). It has been developed in a collaboration with the Centre of Environmental and Climate research and Vultus. The supervisors have been Ullrika Sahlin (CEC) and Abdalla Eltayeb (Vultus).

The thesis was presented Friday 26th at 10.00 in V:Brand 3th floor, V-building, LTH, Lund.

Description in Swedish:

Förekomsten av bladmögel hos potatis har varit och är ett globalt problem. Bladmögel orsakade t.ex. den förödande hungersnöden på Irland i mitten av 1800-talet. I dag besprutas potatisodlingar med stora mängder bekämpningsmedel, i form av fungicider, i förebyggande syfte för att motverka bladmögel.

Genom att försöka undvika onödiga och överflödiga fungicidbehandlingar, kommer det att minska kostnaderna för brukarna samt gynna miljön. Forskning pågår för att försöka optimera användningen av fungicider. Det finns redan flera beslutsstödsystem som ger rekommendationer gällande hantering av bladmögel. Dessa beslutsstödsystem använder modeller som försöker förutspå risken för mögelangrepp, som framförallt är baserade på väderdata. Fjärranalys och drönarfoto används för precisionsodling, vilket är ett sätt att minska kostnader och miljöpåverkan.

I detta arbete har en riskmodell utvecklats för att förutse risken för bladmögel, baserad på väderdata och drönarfoto. Riskmodellen har integrerats i en beslutsanalys för att undersöka om det är kostnadseffektivt att använda drönare för att upptäcka mögel. En känslighetsanalys med fiktiva värden för kostander visar att det man vinner i känslighet mot huruvida det finns mögel eller ej är svårt att uppväga mot möjliga förluster i potatisskörden, särskilt när kostand för drönarfoton är hög. Det skulle kunna gå att hitta strategier där drönare ger mervärde om de kan minska kostnad för applicering av fungicider.

Vi planerar ta arbetet ett steg till och göra en något mer avancerad modell som ser på beslut och utveckling av mögel vid flera tillfällen och som bygger på mer data från fältförsök och drönarfoton.