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Bayes@Lund Book Club Spring 2021

This spring we will continue with the Bayes@Lund Book Club by continue reading Probability Theory: The logic of science by E.T. Jaynes, Cambridge University Press, 2003.

In 2020, we went through chapters 1-5. No we will continue with selected chapters from the book. We share some links to introductory videos by Aubrey Clayton and the text to the book.

Why this book is important (video introduction by Aubrey Clayton))

  • March 1st and 29th Elementary Parameter Estimation (chapter 6) – text, video
  • April 19th Sufficiency, Ancillarity, And All That (chapter 8) – text, video
  • May 10th Repetitive Experiments – Probability and Frequency (chapter 9) – text, video

A session starts at 14.00 and lasts for about an hour

Join the Bayes@Lund by contacting ullrika.sahlin [at] cec.lu.se and we send you and invite to slack and zoom

Welcome

Dmytro Perepolkin, Rasmus Bååth and Ullrika Sahlin

February 5, 2021

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Riskförmiddag i Uppsala 2020

Den 3 december 2020 bjuder Riskkollegiet och Uppsala universitet in studenter, medlemmar och andra intresserade på några korta föredrag där forskare och myndigheter presenterar hur de i sin verksamheter arbetar med risk. Efter föredragen har vi en kort allmän diskussion där alla frågor och kommentarer är välkomna. Program som pdf: Riskförmiddag_Uppsala_Program

10.00 Välkomnande och introduktion av Mattias Lantz (Uppsala universitet) och Riskkollegiets ordförande Ullrika Sahlin (Lunds Universitet)

10.15 Livsmedelsburna faror och nyttorRoland Lindqvist, Livsmedelsverket

10.30 Cyber-security in industrial control systemsAndré Teixeira, Institutionen för elektroteknik, Signaler och system (UU)

10.45 System engineering and system safety in complex technical system – how safe is safe?Maja Lundbäck, Försvarsmakten

11.00 Diskussion kring riskbedömningar. Moderatorer: Ullrika Sahlin och Mattias Lantz

11.15 Riskförmiddagen avslutas

Föranmälan: Riskförmiddagen sker via Zoom. Anmäl dig till seminariet (länk bit.ly/riskförmiddag2020) för att få en länk och lösenord till Zoom-mötet.

November 27, 2020

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Hållbarhetsshowen har premiär

I samband med 2020 års ForskarFredag kommer streamas Hållbarhetsshowen den 28 november. Showen är ett resultat av ett samarbete mellan Ullrika Sahlin CEC och Stefan Zamudio, Vattenhallen. Det var lite svårt att göra en show av ett ganska allvarligt ämne. Vi ser fram emot att göra om den live i framtiden.

Showen visas på Youtube ca 2:12:00 in i den ca 3 timmar långa inspelningen från Forskarfredag.

November 25, 2020

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Uncertainty and Bayesian Networks

‘This is what we don’t know’ ‐ Treating epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian networks for risk assessment is the title of a paper published in Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management by Ullrika Sahlin, Inari Helle and Dmytro Perepolkin.

https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4367

 

We explain parts of the paper in this talk that was held at the North America SETAC conference November 2020. Link to video

 

November 6, 2020

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Bayes@Lund Book Club

Fall 2020 Bayes@Lund is organizing a book club on the foundational book Probability Theory: The logic of science by E.T. Jaynes

Why this book is important (video introduction by Aubrey Clayton)

Total of 3 sessions (~6 weeks)

  1. Session 1 (19 October 2020, 15:00)
    Plausible Reasoning and The Quantitative Rules (chapters 1 and 2) – text, video1, video2
  2. Session 2 (09 November 2020, 15:00)
    Elementary Sampling Theory (chapter 3) – text, video
  3. Session 3 (23 November 2020 15:00)
    Elementary Hypothesis Testing (chapter 4) – text, video1, video2

Participants are expected to read the respective chapter(s) in the book prior to the meeting. If you don’t get the chance to study the chapter, please, watch the video lecture. After the three sessions we will assess the interest to continue and may schedule another 3-5 sessions.

The Bayes@Lund Book Club (BLBC) sessions will consist of a 20-30 min lecture covering the material from the chapter(s) followed by a 30-40 min discussion.

Welcome

Dmytro, Rasmus and Ullrika

October 18, 2020

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Environmental models in waterfowl management under uncertainty

Introductory seminar

We are happy to announce the introductory seminar with PhD student Dmytro Perepolkin Person talking to computer and people

October 22nd 2020 10.15 – 12.00

Each PhD student in environmental science start their studies with preparing a literature review introducing their research topic. Dmytro’s paper can be found here bit.ly/dmi3kno-intropaper The seminar was recorded – ask Ullrika for a link.

The slides have now been published in the following repo: https://github.com/dmi3kno/LU-intropaper

Abstract

Environmental problems are characterized by high complexity, dynamism, stochasticity and interconnectedness of various ecological systems. This necessitates a holistic and systematic approach to environmental decision making, which addresses both stakeholder alignment (clarity of objectives), uncertainty related to management actions (what can and should be done) and lack-of-knowledge related to how systems will change and respond to these interventions (epistemic and aleatory uncertainty). We will provide a brief introduction into the subjects of Decision Analysis and Uncertainty Analysis and their applications in the environmental management. Then we introduce Adaptive Management as a framework for making recurring decisions in environmental domain and discuss the role of learning in resource management.

Waterfowl management problems require modeling of social, environmental and biological systems including animal populations, their interaction with natural landscapes and people. We will review statistical models commonly used in the three areas of waterfowl management: harvest, habitat, and human dimension, focusing on the explicit acknowledgement and treatment of uncertainty in these models.

 

Gees on field
Geese on a field outside Kristianstad, Sweden Photo: Ullrika Sahlin
October 2, 2020

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A discussion about using probability to quantify uncertainty

On August 19th 2020 Ullrika moderated a discussion seminar about what it means to use precise probability to quantify epistemic uncertainty with applications on scientific assessments. This was a seminar in an online series at the Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. https://riskinstitute.uk/riskinstituteonline/

A pdf of the presentation is available here

Sahlin_RIO2020

A recording of the three hour long seminar is on Youtube.

Link https://youtu.be/0qqPRN2wtIs

 

 

August 20, 2020

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ForskarFredag2020

Forskarfredag är en del av European Researchers Night och infaller i år den 27 november (https://forskarfredag.se/arrangor/information-om-forskarfredag-2020/). Här finns möjlighet att presentera sin forskning. Organisationen bakom ForskarFredag heter Vetenskap och Allmänhet. På grund av det rådande läget, planerar man för flera digitala aktiviteter. Vi än grupp av forskare och kommunikatörer som vill stimulera samarbete kring aktiviteter under ForskarFredag. Bland annat vill vi ha minifilmer med forskare för att skapa virtuella aktiviteter. Instruktioner till forskare finns här (länk till pdf): Instructions_to_researchersForskarFredag2020

Forskarfredag (Researchers Friday) is part of the European Researchers night falls on November 27th (https://forskarfredag.se/researchers-night/). This is an opportunity to present your research. The organisation behind ForskarFredag is Vetenskap och Allmänhet (Science and the Public). Due to the current situation, they encourage us to plan digital activities. We are a group of researchers and communicators that would like to stimulate joint activities at ForskarFredag. We are searching for short movies with researchers to create virtual activities. Instructions can be found here (link to pdf): Instructions_to_researchersForskarFredag2020

July 7, 2020

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