Workshop on Bayesian Networks for risk assessment and decision making

You most welcome to attend a workshop on

Bayesian Networks in risk assessment and decision making in Lund March 28 and 29th, 2017.

The event is free of charge and the number of places are limited.

March 28th

Introduction to Bayesian Networks for risk and impact assessment to support decision making.

This will be an interactive and intensive introduction of BNs led by Wayne Landis, Western Washington University, United States, and Ullrika Sahlin, Lund University Centre of Environmental and Climate Research, Lund, Sweden. We will provide a theoretical background together with hands on exercises from risk and impact assessments and decision making. More information and link to register is available here:

http://evidence.blogg.lu.se/workshop-introduction-to-bayesian-networks-for-risk-and-impact-assessment-to-support-decision-making/

March 29th

Open seminar with following workshop on Applications and future developments of Bayesian Networks in risk and impact assessments and environmental decision making.

Invited speakers:

Wayne Landis, Western Washington University, United States

Sakari Kuikka, University of Helsinki, Finland.

We invite contributing talks on the topic. Read more on the website:

http://evidence.blogg.lu.se/applications-and-future-developments-of-bayesian-networks-in-risk-and-impact-assessments-and-environmental-decision-making/

This workshop is financed by the research school ClimBEco.

Welcome to attend one or both of these events

Ullrika Sahlin

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Studentprojekt: Tuggummin som en indikator för nedskräpning i urbana miljöer

Studenter sökes för ett projekt under våren 2017

Detta projekt går ut på att ta reda på hur förekomst av tuggummin förhåller sig till förekomst av skräp i urbana miljöer samt att undersöka i vilken takt nedskräpning sker på olika typer av platser i städer.

Länkar till hur tuggumin uppmärksammas
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2844929/Chewing-gum-companies-help-pay-60million-bill-cleaning-mess-streets-say-councils.html

Projektet innehåller en fältstudie där mängd och ålder på tuggumin undersöks för att skatta var och hur snabbt tuggumin hamnar på gatan och om depositionshastigheten av tuggumin beror på hur många tuggumin som redan finns.  I fältstudien undersöks också förekomst av annat skräp, med syftet att ta reda på om tuggummin är en bra indikator för nedskräpning. Skräp som papper, plast och till en viss del fimpar, har en tendens att flytta på sig, medan tuggummin ligger kvar. Om det finns ett starkt samband kan det ge grund till att föreslå att tuggummin är en bra indikator för nedskräpning.

Studien är en upprepning av en liknande studie gjord i stora städer i England, vilket möjliggör en jämförelse.

Projektet kommer att utöver fältarbete, innehålla en del arbete med GIS.

Det är möjligt att dela upp projektet mellan flera studenter.

Handledare Peter Olsson och Ullrika Sahlin

skicka mail direkt till ullrika.sahlin@cec.lu.se och Peter.olsson@cec.lu.se om du är intresserad

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Applications and future developments of Bayesian Networks in risk and impact assessments and environmental decision making

Open seminar and workshop

When: Wednesday March 29th 2017. From 10 to 14

Where: Ecology Building, Lund University, Sölvegatan 27, Lund, Sweden

In order to help us find a suitable room we would appreciate if you indicated your interest to attend in this doodle 

Background

Bayesian Networks is a type of probabilistic modelling with wide applications in science and decision making. BNs is a modelling framework that enable us to integrate evidence to inform decisions, based on causal relations between decision, states and impact variables. BNs allows integration of data and expert knowledge.

This workshop will demonstrate the application of BNs in risk and impact assessment and environmental management, and, discuss and critically reflect on the developments and applications of BNs in research and decision making, through the use of case studies.

Format

The first part of the workshop will be an open seminar with invited and contributing talks. If you want to contribute with a talk, please send the title of your talk to ullrika.sahlin@cec.lu.se.

The second part of the workshop will be discussions with those interested with the aim to produce the bases of at least two scientific papers. If you want to take part in the second part, you should inform the organizers of your interest before the workshop, and preferably contribute with a talk to the workshop.

Invited speakers

Wayne Landis, Western Washington University, United States. Wayne is a Professor in Environmental Science and a Director of the Institute of Environmental Toxicology at Western Washington University. He has over 20 years of experience in ecological risk assessment research, using Bayesian networks to guide decision making. https://huxley.wwu.edu/people/landis

Sakari Kuikka, University of Helsinki, Finland. Sakari is a Professor in fisheries science and a head of the Fisheries and Environmental Management Group research group. http://www.helsinki.fi/science/fem/kuikka.html

Talks at the open seminar

Adaptive management of ecological risks at large spatial scales using a Bayesian network – relative risk model, Wayne Landis

Learning chains in oil spill risk analysis, Sakari Kuikka

What is needed to get Bayesian Networks robust to weaknesses in knowledge? Ullrika Sahlin

TBA – further contributing speakers

This workshop is funded by the research school ClimBEco 

 

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Workshop: Introduction to Bayesian Networks for risk and impact assessment to support decision making

This workshop aims to introduce Bayesian (Belief) Networks to students and researchers. We will provide a theoretical background together with hands on exercises from risk and impact assessments and decision making.

When: Tuesday March 28th at 10 to 16

Where: Heden (room bottom floor), Ecology Building, Lund University, Sölvegatan 27, Lund, Sweden

Link to register

The workshop is free of charge. The workshop is supported by the research school ClimBEco.

Target audience:

Undergraduate and graduate students and researchers interested in learning how to build and use Bayesian (Belief) Networks to integrate evidence, assess risk or impacts, and evaluate decision alternatives. We will use examples from environmental risk and impact assessments, but the scope of the workshop is BNs with no particular type of application. No previous experience in BNs is needed. Participants are encouraged to study a literature list sent out prior to the workshop.

Motivation:

A Bayesian Network is a modelling framework that enable us to integrate evidence to inform decisions, based on causal relations between decision, state and impact variables. BNs allows integration of data and expert knowledge.

The workshop will be facilitated by:

Wayne Landis, Western Washington University, United States.

Wayne is a Professor in Environmental Science and a Director of the Institute of Environmental Toxicology at Western Washington University. He has over 20 years of experience in ecological risk assessment research, using Bayesian networks to guide decision making. https://huxley.wwu.edu/people/landis

Ullrika Sahlin, Center for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund, Sweden.

Ullrika is a researcher with focus on risk, uncertainty and decision making.

Schedule

  • 10-11 Wayne: The motivation to use BNs to model cause and effects  and assess risks.
  • 11.15-12 Ullrika: What is a BN. The basics. Hands on.
  • 13-14 Wayne: The decision perspective and more applications. Some hands on examples.
  • 14.15-15 Ullrika: Adding nodes. Running your model.
  • 15-16 Questions & Answers
  • 16 Informal session at a pub in Lund

Literature

In order to get more out of the workshop we encourage you to study the literature before the workshop.

  • Marcot, B. G., J. D. Steventon, G. D. Sutherland, and R. K. McCann. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36:3063-3074. Link
  • J. Pearl. A short note on Bayesian networks prepared for the MIT Encyclopedia of the Cognitive sciences. Downloaded from http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/R246.pdf
  • The support documentation for using GENIE includes an introduction to decision analysis and Bayesian networks: http://support.bayesfusion.com/docs/genie/
  • Herring, C. E., J. Stinson, and W. G. Landis. 2015. Evaluating nonindigenous species management in a Bayesian networks derived relative risk framework for Padilla Bay, WA, USA. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 11:640-652. Link

We will run examples in R and GENIE (https://download.bayesfusion.com/). In order to do the hands-on exercises we recommend that you have these programs on you computer when you come to the workshop.

 

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Bayes@Lund2017 – note the date and call for abstracts

Save the date! The fourth edition of Bayes@Lund will be held on 20 April 2017 in Lund, Sweden.

The purpose of this conference is to bring together researchers, practitioners and students working with or interested in Bayesian methods. Bayes@Lund aims at being accessible to those with little experience of Bayesian methods while still being relevant to experienced practitioners.

It will feature keynote lectures from Prof. Darren Wilkinson and Prof. Richard McElreath, in addition to a number of contributed talks. On the 19th April there will be a free introductory tutorial to Bayesian analysis.

The conference is free to attend and registration will open in February. For more information see the conference web page: http://www.maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017/

*** Call for Contributions ***

We’re looking for contributed talks and any topic related to Bayesian analysis is relevant including, but not restricted to:

* Case studies. Have you used Bayesian methods in your research? Describe what you did, and how it worked out.
* Methodology development. Are you developing novel Bayesian methods that you want to share?
* Tutorial style talks. Want to share your favorite tool or modeling technique? This does not have to be novel research, just a useful tool for research!
* Teaching Bayes. Do you have experiences teaching Bayesian methods. What were the challenges, and do you have any useful tips?

To contribute a talk please send a plain text email (no pdf attachments) with the title of your talk, authors names with affiliations, email addresses, and an abstract (not more than 150 words) to bayeslund2017@gmail.com.

As the audience will be highly heterogeneous, the talk is expected to be accessible and engaging for a multidisciplinary audience.

Deadline for abstracts submission is the 10th of February, 2017  (notification of acceptance sent by 15 February).

Each accepted speaker is given 20 minutes (plus 5 minutes for questions).

We’re looking forward to see you in Lund!

 

The organizers

Umberto Picchini and Ullrika Sahlin

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Intensive and fun -2016’s graduate course on risk, uncertainty and decision making is now completed

This was a course funded by the research schools LUCID and ClimBeco. 26 students participated. We had two physical meetings. One in Lund and one in Gothenburg. The one in Gothenburg included a 1.5 day risk conference – the 2nd Nordic Chapter Risk meeting. We were a bit afraid that it would be too much, but on the contrary – we felt that the students got exposed to high quality keynotes and contributed talks, saw the width of risk research and actually made new connections. The small format of the risk conference (about 100 people) and friendly atmosphere made them feel welcomed.

Me and Åsa Knaggård decided to have this course since we had a similar one when we were PhD-students. Now, ten years later – it was time to pay back. We learnt a lot and hope that the students did too. It was excellent to have Daniel Slunge on the team to help us out in Gothenburg and using his network to get good lecturers.

~Ullrika

lundpict

 

gbgpictstudents16

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Great talks and networking at the 2nd Nordic chapter risk meeting

Last week risk researchers and other interested in the risk field came to Gothenburg to take part in the 2nd annual meeting of the Nordic chapter of the Society for Risk analysis. Last year in Lund was successful so our expectations were high. I must say that this year became even more successful.

The keynote speakers were excellent – all of them. Read more on the web page for the conference

We had fun, the atmosphere was friendly and the topics highly relevant and interesting.

Check out the flow on twitter #srae16 to see what was going on.

A more in depth summary is available nordic_sra_meeting_gbg2016. Thanks to Randa Kachef for the reporting and the high quality photos.

walkommen

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renn

Ullrika and Åsa Boholm (chair) opens the meeting. Åsa talks to the president of SRA James Lambert. Ortwin Renn in his keynote.

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At the Nordic chapter SRA business meeting Ullrika (president) and Marja (president elect) informed about the next meeting which will be in Finland 2017

3rd

The European SRA conference will be in Sweden 2018.

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More keynotes: Nick Pidgeon, Sven-Ove Hansson, Barbara Czarniawska, Jaana Huso-Kallio

pidgeonsvenovekeynot

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The Nordic chapter handed out two awards: Caroline Fredriksson for the best student presentation and Christina Mauléon & Maria Spante for the best presentation.

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The ESREL risk image competition over

This year the ESREL conference in Glasgow decided to do a risk image competition. What a wonderful idea. Time to go creative.

The task was to illustrate risk. After several months of scratching my head I saw the deadline approaching too fast.

My children came to the rescue. My oldest son had built something in lego that with some slight imagination looked like the Eiffel tower. At the same time the middle son played the board game risk, which we all know has a lot of dices in it. I was cleaning my room and found a dusty mirror in a corner.

Bam – there it was. The image illustrating what it means to assess the probability of unique event – such as a terrorist attack or something which we just have not experienced before.

 

litenbildriskHow do we assess the probability of a unique event? It is not repeatable. Sometimes we just have to believe – somehow. 

Did I win? Well, almost. I got in the final with a nice certificate to put on the wall.

 

Thanks Lesley Walls for arranging this stimulating competition

imagecompsahlin

~Ullrika

 

 

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What is Robust analysis?

Does this question appeals to you?

Do you want to apply Bayesian modelling for the purpose to quantify uncertainty and support decision making? Do you feel inspired reading texts about uncertainty? Can you tell a bee from a wasp? Do you want to do a PhD in an interdisciplinary environment?

Then perhaps our new PhD project on Robust analysis is something for you. Last day to apply is October 3rd 2016.

 

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Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Making

The course is over. Check this post for a summary.

Registration is now closed for the PhD course in risk, uncertainty and decision making.

risk_measurement_400_clr_5483

We make a number of decisions every day. These decisions are based on conscious or unconscious analysis, as well as assessments of risks and uncertainties. We are often unaware of how we make these decisions, and how we compare alternatives. The decisions can be about everyday situations, like if to bring an umbrella, or about complex and urgent issues that face society, like issues connected with the environment or sustainability. The course focuses on a number of issues: How can risk be assessed? Can risk be quantified? How do risk assessments affect decision and policy making? What role does risk communication and media play? How do individuals perceive risks and risk management? How does the concept of risk influence the way we understand the world and try to control it? Risk, uncertainty, and decision analysis implies systematic efforts to understand the context and consequences of decisions.

The aim of the course is to give a deeper understanding of the theoretical perspectives and methods in risk research within different disciplines, and tools for interdisciplinary risk research. The course contains lectures and seminars. The lectures will provide rich accounts of different disciplinary perspectives.  The participants will in seminars get a chance to collaborate on questions requiring an interdisciplinary approach.

Target group: Graduate students from different disciplines

Extent: 7.5 credits

The course has two physical meetings:

  • October 13-14th in Lund (hosted by LUCRAM, Lund University), starts 9.00 the 13th, ends 15.00 the 14th
  • November 13-16th in Gothenburg (hosted by the School of Business, Economics and Law, Gothenburg University), starts 14.00 the 13th, ends 12.00 16th

Participants are expected to prepare in advance to the meetings by reading the assigned literature. The course is examined through attendance of the physical meetings and a completed paper where at least two themes of the course is discussed in relation to the participants PhD subject or field of interest.

The second meeting includes the second Nordic risk conference held in November 14-15th 2016. As course participant you have two options: (1)  To send in an abstract to the conference for an oral presentation. If accepted the participant should pay the conference fee to the conference organisers. The conference fee is 1000 SEK for PhD and master students (and 1500 SEK otherwise). (2) To participate in the conference without giving any oral presentation. If so, the course will compensate the conference fee after a completed course.

This course is funded by the research program LUCID and the research school ClimBECO and is given as part of the Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Managment (LUCRAM). It is open for any PhD student to attend. The number of places is limited.

Course directors: Åsa Knaggård (LU), Ullrika Sahlin (LU) och Daniel Slunge (GU).

The course will be given in English

Cost: The conference fee to attend the Nordic Chapter SRA conference

Lund – October

Where: Kärret bottom floor in the Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37 (close to LTH student union house)
Thursday 13
9.30 to 12.00 Henrik Tehler (Division of Risk Management and Social Safety, LTH): Introduction to risk assessment
13.00 to 14.30 Annika Wallin (Department of Philosophy, Lund University): Individual decision making
14.45 to 15.45 Henrik Hassel (Division of Risk Management and Social Safety, LTH): Quantitative descriptions of risk
16.00 to 17.00 Ullrika Sahlin (Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University): Probability

Friday 14
9 to 10.30 Johannes Persson, (Department of Philosophy, Lund University): Risk philosophy
11 to 12 Frederik Lundtofte (School of Economics and Management, Lund University): Risk in an economist’s perspective
13 to 14 Literature discussion
14 to 15 Ullrika Sahlin: Mind the risk – a case-study on planning under risk and uncertainty

Göteborg – November
Sunday 13
14 to 15.15 Åsa Knaggård (Department of Political Science, Lund University): Policy-making under risk and uncertainty
15.30 to 16.45 Ragnar Löfstedt (King’s Centre for Risk Management, King’s College London): Risk communication in the 21st century
17 to 18.15 Nick Pidgeon (School of Psychology, Cardiff University): Advances in risk communication
18.30 to 19 Joint discussion with students

Monday 14
9.30 to 18 Risk conference and group discussions

Tuesday 15
9 to 13 Risk conference
14.30 to 15.30 Tomas Bergström (Institute of Biomedicine, Gothenburg University): Ticks – case-study on risk perception and risk communication
16 to 17 Daniel Slunge (Centre for Environment and Sustainability, Gothenburg University): Ticks – case-study on risk perception and risk communication

Wednesday 16
9 to 10 Daniel Slunge: Ticks – case-study on risk perception and risk communication
10.30 to 12 Ullrika Sahlin: Uncertainty

 

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