A game about uncertainty and decision making

Here we will put more information soon

 

 

 

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Highly productive meeting on gamification for uncertainty and decision making

For two days in November experts on decision theory, statistics and risk analysis met at Lund University to

  • Come up with ideas for a game to motivate people to learn more about expressing uncertainty and making decisions under uncertainty
  • Identify target theory and concepts to demonstrate in the game
  • Test the ideas on game prototypes

It was a successful meeting with many stimulating discussions. Great help was provided by the testing persons: Cecilia Bengtsson, Elin Bonnevier, Peter Olsson and Tove Ryden Sonesson. An operational game will be ready by the end of 2017. Curious to know more – contact me. Project web site.

Ullrika

We mixed short crash talks with creative ideas.

Igor Linkov gave an excellent presentation on resilience as a concept in Multi Criteria Decision Making.

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Test our forthcoming game for uncertainty!

Do you want to be part of a testing group for the development of a computer game about expressing uncertainty and making decisions?

This is something for you who

  • Has an ability to give constructive feedback on your experience of playing a simple computer game
  • A tiny interest in knowing more about how to guess with uncertainty and choose between decisions where there is uncertainty (only applicable for those attending the meeting, which now is over).

Gaming for uncertainty is an ideation project at Lund University financed by Climate-KIC with the aim to develop an entertaining game that motivates people to want to learn more about what it means to express uncertainty and make decisions. The game include simple daily life problems and a case-study related climate change adaptation.

We seek independent reference persons who can test the prototypes for the game developed within the project.

As participant of the group you are expected test and provide feedback on game prototypes via internet during the period 1 –  22 December.

Sign up your interest on this link https://goo.gl/forms/0GfojHwFxSdI5DPy1 and we will contact you.

Contact: Ullrika Sahlin Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se

 

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Fruitful interactions at the 3rd Nordic Chapter risk conference

We had a great meeting at beautiful Aalto University, Esboo, Finland.

Check out the twitter flow on #sran17

Conference web page blogs.aalto.fi/risk2017/

 

 

 

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Bayesian talk on how to use computers to analyse data – REACH Meeting

Ullrika gave a talk on Bayesian Inference at the upcoming REACH  Discussion Meeting on 27 October in Lund

Link to the talk and some files are here:

https://github.com/Ullrika/BayesianInference

My talk followed directly after a talk about Machine Learning which is a very nice

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Quantifying uncertainty integrating expert judgement and data – tutorial

Ullrika travelled all the way to Liverpool to give a tutorial at the BayesDays. Nice event.

The material for the tutorial in on github: https://github.com/Ullrika/TBDL2017

A Bayesian model? !

Pizza for lunch to keep pace with the talks

The room for the BayesDays with people – not sitting an listening?

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Trusting expert judgments – seminar Oct 25th 2017

Welcome to a seminar on the book Trusting Judgments

 

The seminar was led by the participants and gently facilitated by Ullrika. We went go through the book chapter by chapter. It was a very useful and inspiring day. Thank you all for coming. The old Bishop house in Lund is an excellent place for smaller workshops.

This is a seminar supported by the strategic research environment BECC and arranged by the BECC action group “Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment”

Biskopshuset

Why this book

This book is intended for people in government, regulatory agencies and business who routinely make decisions and who rely on scientific and technical expertise. So-called evidence-based decision-making has become more popular over the last decade, but often the evidence we need for these decisions is unavailable. Time, money and the pressing nature of many decisions prevent us from collecting much of the information we need. In its place, decision-makers turn to experts to estimate facts or make predictions. The status of scientific and technical experts has evolved over the last 100 years or more to provide unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. The hidden risk is that scientists and other experts overreach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. The tendency to overreach is pervasive and more significant than many scientists and decision-makers like to admit. Much of the evidence for these phenomena is drawn from well-established research on decision theory and cognitive psychology. This book documents the extent and importance of this issue, and then outlines a suite of simple, practical tools that will assist decision-makers to make better use of expert estimates and predictions. It provides the means to discriminate good advice from poor, and to help decision-makers to be reasonably and appropriately skeptical. The book promotes a change in attitude towards expert predictions and estimates such that they are treated with the same reverence as data, subjected to the same kinds of cross-examination and verification. By requiring a little discipline from their experts, decision-makers can avoid the most pervasive pitfalls of expert judgements and assure themselves of relatively reliable and accurate expert information.

The author of the book

Mark Burgman is Director of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Conservation Biology.  Previously, he was Adrienne Clarke Chair of Botany at the University of Melbourne, Australia. He works on expert judgement, ecological modelling, conservation biology and risk assessment.  He has written models for biosecurity, medicine regulation, marine fisheries, forestry, irrigation, electrical power utilities, mining, and national park planning.

The book

Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts by Mark Burgman. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2015. doi:10.1017/CBO9781316282472

Ch1. What’s wrong with consulting experts?

Ch2. Kinds of uncertainty

Ch 3. What leads experts astray?

Ch 4. Dealing with individual experts

Ch 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited

Ch 6. Tips to get the best out of experts

 

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Gaming for better decision making – one winner at Climate-Kic Nordic Ideation Day

The project Gaming for better decision making was one of the winners at the Climate-Kic Nordic Ideation Day in Aarhus August 23 2017.

Ullrika recieves the award from the Climate-Kic community.

Ullrika was there pitching it in front of a jury. Great day with a lot of positive feedback and useful connections.

Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is a project with the aim to develop a computer game that motivates people to learn about uncertainty analysis and decision making in an entertaining way. The game will explain the benefits of expressing uncertainty when making predictions and possible ways to make decisions under uncertainty.

Extraction of the poster used at the Ideation Day.

The game will include prediction and decision problems from daily life that players can relate to, and a fictional game scenario that involves decision making under climate uncertainty, where there is a need to consider the balance between social, economic, and environmental impacts. A case-study on climate decisions under uncertainty will be developed on flood protection in the municipality of Vejle, Denmark. We will benefit from previous experience in serious gaming at Aarhus University.

By the end of 2017 we will have an operational game prototype.

The game is expected to result in

– a greater interest to learn more about uncertainty among experts and decision makers

– a wider use of subjective probability for uncertainty

– a tool to initiate discussions on how to adapt uncertainty analysis to your decision problem

Partners: Lund University, DTU, Aarhus University, Vejle municipality

People (to be updated):

Ullrika Sahlin, Associate Professor, Lund University, Sweden. Uncertainty analysis in risk and environmental impact assessment.

Anthony O’Hagan Emeritus Professor, the University of Sheffield, UK. Eliciting expert knowledge using subjective probability; e-learning to train experts to express uncertainty accurately and rigorously.

Igor Linkov, Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University. Expert on decision making with applications on climate adaption and development of serious games of decision making.

Igor Kozine, Senior Researcher and Miroslava Tegeltija, PhD Student. Technical University of Denmark (Danmarks Tekniske Universitet). Quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches to uncertainty representation.

Matthias C. M. Troffaes. Expert on decision making under uncertainty with imprecise probability; applications in engineering and environmental sciences; avid gamer. Associate Professor (Reader), Durham University, UK.

External reviewer:

EFSA, Assessment and Methodological Support Unit, Olaf Mosbach-Schulz. Implementing uncertainty analysis in food and feed risk assessment. Training programs on probabilistic judgements for external experts.

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The 3rd Nordic Chapter Risk conference in Finland – Call for abstracts

The Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) invites abstracts to the 3rd conference which will be held at Aalto University, Espoo, Finland, November 2-3, 2017. (20 minutes’ bus trip from Helsinki).

The theme of the conference “Risk and Security” highlights the role risk plays in relation to security.

If you attend this conference you can listen to talks on risk and security from different disciplinary perspectives covering maths to social science

See more on the conference web

Register before October 17th

 

 

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The Bayes@ concept

Bayes@: Approachable mini conferences on applied Bayesian statistics

A Bayes@ mini-conference is a (more or less) local one day event bring together people working with or interested in Bayesian methods. Bayes@ events aims at being accessible to people with little experience of Bayesian methods while still being relevant to experienced practitioners. The focus is on how Bayesian methods are used in research and industry, what the advantages and challenges are with using Bayesian methods, and how Bayesian methods can be used and taught in a better way.

The first Bayes@ event was organized in Lund, Sweden by Rasmus Bååth and Ullrika Sahlin in 2014 when they noticed that, while many people use Bayesian methods at the university, they were spread all over campus. Rasmus and Ullrika thought: Why not meet up and share experiences and tips in a one day mini-conference? And so they did.

Read more on the github page bayesat.github.io/

Contact Ullrika or Rasmus if you are interested in arranging a Bayes@ conference. Have fun : )

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