Statistical models for expert judgment in environmental decision making

We are happy to announce the mid-term seminar for Dmytro Perepolkin, PhD student, at CEC, Lund University on October 19th 2022 at 9.15 CET

At this seminar – Dmytro will present work he has done and will be doing in his PhD thesis, which will be followed by a discussion with a mid-term opponent.

The mid-term opponent is Professor Andrew Robinson at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA), and a Professor in applied statistics at the University of Melbourne.

Recording of Dmytro’s excellent presentation 



Expert Knowledge Elicitation is an emerging field in applied sciences particularly useful in situations when the data is sparse or the system under investigation is complex, as is the case with environmental management problems. We propose some new probability distributions for making the elicitation of expert judgment easier, as well as to simplify their integration into common statistical models for assessment supporting decision-making. We show an application of a model parameterized by the elicited quantiles to food safety and outline the path towards using the quantile-parameterized distributions in complementing the presence-only data for species distribution modelling.


Keywords: quantile-based Bayesian inference, quantile-parameterized distributions, exposure assessment, species distribution models, GBIF


September 29, 2022

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