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2nd Nordic chapter risk conference in Göteborg

The Nordic-Baltic chapter of Society of Risk Analysis proudly presents the call for the second Nordic chapter meeting.

The theme of the conference is “Where are we and where are we going: New insights into risk analysis in the Nordic countries”

Deadline for submission of both individual presentations and symposia is Monday 29 August.

The conference brings together individuals and organisations interested in risk assessment, risk management and risk communication in Europe. The Society of Risk Analysis Europe: Nordic Chapter promotes specifically Nordic and Baltic issues in the field of risk, and aims to facilitate debate and exchanges of information and opinion between professionals in industry, government, universities, research institutes, and consultancies. It has the ambition to convene and promote scientific and educational meetings on risk research, risk analysis and risk management in the Nordic and Baltic countries.

Themes for presentations may include:

  • risk communication and uncertainty
  • environmental governance
  • new technologies and innovation
  • risk framing
  • evidence-based policy making
  • new perspectives on risk assessment
  • risk and ethics
  • organizing in the face of risk
  • emerging risk issues in the Nordic and Baltic countries

The conference is hosted by Gothenburg Research Institute at the School of Business, Economics and Law at the University of Gothenburg.

The conference is sponsored by the Partner Program at the School of Business, Economics and Law at the University of Gothenburg.

Take the opportunity to arrange a session on a topic you think deserves to be in the spotlight or where you would like to engage in discussion and learn more.

A symposium is a topical session organized by two individuals who identifies the presenters for that session and their presentation titles, rather than relying on the conference organizers to assemble a topical session from individual abstracts.

A PhD-course on Risk is under development. The plan is to have it in Lund in October and in Gothenburg in association to the conference.

Sign up on the nordic chapter of sra newsletter to get information on what is going on.

^Ullrika

May 16, 2016

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It is time to reconsider how we think about risk

Risk is something that concerns us all.

Risk has become an integrated part of decision making and it is acknowledged that decisions should be informed by risks. This means that a decision maker may take other things than risk into account.

Even though society efficiently are managing risks, we are now more often facing risks that are new, tricky or complex.

New global challenges or new technology create phenomena for which we have little experience or limited understanding.

Managing the most easy and obvious problems first has left decision makers with the most tricky risks to regulate.

More inter-dependencies between different societal or natural systems is challenging for the detection and control of adverse system behavior.

The new, tricky and complex results in that the risks we face today are more uncertain than before. The classical view on risk as probability * consequences is challenged by

  1. the need to consider risks of different types and
  2. the need to face uncertainty of different levels of severity.

gbgstatuesTo combat the problem for risk assessors and decision makers of today, the Society for Risk Analysis have produced a glossary presenting a broader view on risk. The glossary make a clear distinction between risk as a concept and how we choose to measure it.

Further, the SRA glossary emphasis that the quantity and quality of available knowledge should guide how we choose to describe uncertainty. This means that uncertainty are treated even though our knowledge is too weak to support uncertainty being quantified by probabilities.

It remains to see if a broader view on risk can be of help to risk assessors and decision makers. I find that it may close the gap between risk-informed and evidence-based decision making. It is more important than ever that education and training of new assessors and decision makers get exposed to the ongoing advancement of the science of risk analysis.

So, take the opportunity to revise your view on risk. Perhaps you like it : )

/Ullrika

May 16, 2016

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Uncertain risks and decision making

Treating risk with high uncertainty occurs at many levels of political decision making. What do researchers and risk assessors say about how to understand and treat uncertain risks? Is there a way to take better responsibility for treating uncertainty at political decision making?

 arrows-167536_640

Within the advanced study group on calculating and communicating uncertainty supported by the Pufendorf Institute in Lund we wanted to reach out to those making decisions. This subject is huge and impossible to cover in one evening, but why not give it a try.

On April 28th we open the doors to Pufendorf for an informal discussion. The  invitation with more information is available here.

Ullrika Sahlin will start saying some words about the quantification of uncertainty. She will bring up the use of probability as a measure of uncertainty and the wonder of statistical principles at a simple level. She will give some examples of guidelines for risk assessors. After that Åsa Knaggård will talk about uncertainty and decision making from a political science point of view. We have the pleasure to be hosted by Prof Ragnar Löfstedt. He will (in swedish) talk about uncertainty and transparency. This is a very exiting topic and you will hear examples directly from the field of political decision making. We seek a simple and informal forum to discuss and create new connections.

 

April 7, 2016

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Bayesian Analysis for curious learners

I often get questions from students about opportunities to get started with Bayesian Analysis. Most courses in BA at Lund University is given on an advanced mathematical level, or as a few lectures (if all) in a statistics course.

Bayesian Analysis is useful both in research and decision making. Our students are the future scientists, consultants or policy makers for important environmental and societal challenges.

We should give them the possibility to expand their understanding of approaches to calculate and communicate uncertainty, in which Bayesian Analysis offer a coherent statistical framework.

We will invite students curious about Bayesian Analysis to a series of tutorials and discussions. Info about these tutorials will be posted here.

Monday Feb 29th. Bayesian modelling in JAGs. From 17 to 19. Held by Ullrika Sahlin

Code and examples from the sessoins are available on GitLab project

Coming up. Decision analysis using Bayesian Belief Networks. From 17 to 19. Held by Ullrika Sahlin

date-to-be decided. Bayesian modelling STAN

date-to-be decided. Bayesian hypothesis testing

 

February 12, 2016

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Summary of the 1st Nordic Chapter Risk Conference


 

We did it!

Thank you all for making this a successful conference.

We cover the conference in our December newsletter from the Nordic Chapter of SRA-Europe.

Program SRANC_final

Homepage of the conference

Check out who attended the conference

It is possible to sign up for future newsletters on the nordic chapter pages on www.sraeurope.org or by clicking on this link.

The conference got attention in local media


Take the opportunity to go over the keynote presentations again:

Science and Proven Experience by Johannes Persson, Professor in Philosophy at Lund University, Sweden

Persson_keynote_sraNordic_Lund_2015

Risk Management in Practice: Lessons and Findings  by Åsa Boholm, Professor in social anthropology at Gothenburg University, Sweden

Boholm_keynote_sraNordic_Lund_2015

Socio-economic analysis in chemicals risk management  by Tomas Öberg, European CHemical Agency (ECHA), Finland

Oberg_keynote_sraNordic_Lund_2015

What is risk science?  by Terje Aven, Professor in Risk Analysis and Safety Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway

Aven_keynote_sraNordic_Lund_2015

How can Risk Assessment embrace the real world of Multiple Stressors, Accumulative Harm, and the Dearth of Data?  by David Gee, Visiting Fellow, Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University, Retired Senior Adviser on Science, Policy, Emerging Issues, European Environment Agency, Denmark

Gee_keynote_sraNordic_Lund_2015

Risk risk tradeoffs: What should we do in Europe? by Ragnar Löfstedt, Professor of Risk Management and Director of King’s Centre for Risk Management, King’s College Londond, UK

Ragnar had an excellent talk without any slides.


After the conference we had a Business meeting of the SRA-E: NORDIC. We elected the board and made some decisions. Minutes are found here.

December 4, 2015

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Is Bayesian inference failing when there is a conflict between your prior and data?

Welcome to a seminar on Bayesian Inference and Prior-Data Conflict


On the 15th of December Dr. Gero Walter from Technische Universiteit Eindhoven gave a seminar about the problem of prior-data conflict, that is, when the information from data is in conflict with prior assumptions (abstract is below). His talk was followed by a hands on session where the attendees will learned how to handle and mitigate prior-data conflict in practice. The half-day was be rounded off by a complimentary lunch. 10 persons attended the seminar.

10.00 – 11.00 Talk on prior-data conflict by Dr. Gero Walter
11.15 – 12.00 Hands on exercises
12.15 – 13.00 Complimentary Lunch

The event is organised by the Advanced Study Group on Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty and takes place at the Pufendorf institute (https://goo.gl/maps/xjruS9HLzvz) at Lund University and is open to all interested and is free to attend.

Some of the exercises were made with the R statistical language. R is free and can be downloaded here: https://www.r-project.org/ Gero will do some of the exercises using his R-package luck. The package can be installed by the following lines of code

install.packages(“TeachingDemos”)
install.packages(“http://download.r-forge.r-project.org/src/contrib/luck_0.9.tar.gz”, repos = NULL, type = “source”)

Gero has prepared a document explaining Generalized Bayesian Inference with sets of conjugate priors for dealing with prior-data conflict.

The solutions to the exercises are kindly provided.

Geros talk is found at talk-lund

 

Link to the WPMSIIP workshop 2016:

The web page of the Society for Imprecise probability 

 

 

/Ullrika Sahlin on behalf of the Pufendorf Advanced Study Group on Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty 2015-2016

 

Seminar abstract

———————————

In the Bayesian approach to statistical inference, (possibly subjective) knowledge on model parameters can be expressed by so-called prior distributions. A prior distribution is updated, via Bayes’ Rule, to the so-called posterior distribution, which combines prior information and information from data into a ‘complete picture’, thus expressing our state of knowledge about model parameters after having seen the data.

A problem that then can arise is called prior-data conflict: from the viewpoint of the prior, the observations seem very surprising, i.e., the information from data is in conflict with the prior assumptions. Unfortunately, models based on conjugate priors (which allow for straight-forward calculation of the posterior), are insensitive to prior-data conflict, in the sense that the spread of the posterior distribution does not increase in case of such a conflict. The posterior then conveys a false sense of certainty, by communicating that we can quantify uncertainty on model parameters quite precisely when in fact we cannot.

It is however possible to preserve tractability and have a meaningful reaction to prior-data conflict by using sets of conjugate priors for modelling prior information. This approach, which can be seen as imprecise probability method or robust Bayesian procedure, avoids the spurious over-precision of standard Bayesian methods and allows to adequately express vague or partial prior knowledge. With the precision of prior probability statements intuitively modelled through the magnitude of the set of priors, the posterior set appropriately reflects the prior precision, the amount of data, and prior-data conflict.

 

Warning! This seminar could make you think in a different way. 2015-09-07 11.05.23

150909-ESREL_GALA_FrancescaCBruno_MS-24-300x200Ullrika and Gero together with two new made friends at the last ESREL conference in Zurich.

December 2, 2015

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Bayes@Lund 2016

Bayes@Lund 2016 – a Mini-conference on Bayesian Methods at Lund University, 5th of February, 2016

Close to 100 people attended the conference and it was highly appreciated. Access to the contributing presentations and photos can be found at the conference web page. See you next year…

godis

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA


 

Researchers and students are welcome to participate in the third edition of Bayes@Lund! The purpose of this conference is to bring together researchers working with or interested in Bayesian methods. Bayes@Lund aims at being accessible to researchers with little experience of Bayesian methods while still being relevant to experienced practitioners. The focus is on how Bayesian methods are used in research, what advantages Bayesian methods have over classical alternatives, and how the use and teaching of Bayesian methods can be encouraged.

The conference is free to attend but we ask you to register in advance here: http://www.lucs.lu.se/bayes-at-lund-2016/

Keynote speaker: Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

This year we are happy to announce that the keynote speaker is Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, professor in the Psychological Methods unit at the University of Amsterdam. His keynote presentation is titled Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher touching upon the concrete ways in which Bayesian inference can improve the scientific process.

Important Dates

  • Final date for presentations submission: 20th of December
  • Notifications to presenters: 24th of December
  • Final date for registration: 29th of January
  • Tutorial seminar on Bayesian inference with E.J. Wagenmakers: 4th of February
  • The conference: 5th of February

Call for Presentations

To contribute a presentation for Bayes@Lund please send in the title of your talk with an abstract (not more than 100 words) to rasmus.baath@lucs.lu.se. Final date for presentations submission is the 20th of December. Any topic related to Bayesian methods is relevant including, but not restricted to:

  • Case studies. Have you used Bayesian methods in your research? Describe what you did, and how it worked out.
  • Tutorial style talks. Want to share your favourite tool or modeling technique? This does not have to be novel research, just a useful tool for research!
  • Method development. Are you developing novel Bayesian methods that you want to share?
  • Teaching Bayes. Do you have experiences teaching Bayesian methods. What was the challenges, and do you have any useful tips?

Each accepted speaker is given 20 minutes and, as the audience will be highly heterogeneous, the talk is expected to be accessible and engaging for a multidisciplinary audience.

Pre-conference tutorial on Bayesian inference

The day before the conference there will be a tutorial seminar on Bayesian inference by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, a great opportunity to learn or brush up the basics of Bayes! More information here: www.lucs.lu.se/bayes-at-lund-2016/#pre-conference-tutorial-on-bayesian-inference

Program, Info & registration

Please see the conference web page: www.lucs.lu.se/bayes-at-lund-2016/ or contact us at:

If you want to get notified of other events at Lund University that relates to Bayesian methods consider subscribing to the Bayes@Lund mailing list at http://www.lucs.lu.se/bayes/ .

All best,
Rasmus & Ullrika

November 10, 2015

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Celebrate the Nobel day by joining us in a workshop on Bayesian methods using Stan

nobelprize1In dark December we are happy to host Aki Vehtari from Aalto University, Finland,  who will show us how to implement Bayesian methods using the Stan software.

  • Stan is a probabilistic programming language implementing full Bayesian statistical inference.
  • Stan is coded in C++ and runs on all major platforms.
  • Stan is open source.

We will use practical hands-on session with the Stan software (no preliminary knowledge of Stan required).

The following topics will be covered:
– intro to the Bayesian way of thinking uncertainties; intro to Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference;
– Bayesian inference using the Stan programming language;
– groups comparison; standard linear models, generalised linear models;
– examples of further possibilities offered by Stan.
– discussion and question-and-answer around data provided by participants.

Location: Matematikcentrum and LUX, Lund University

Date: 10 December 2015

Event page and registration: http://www.maths.lth.se/matstat/staff/umberto/bayes-vehtari.html

This event is organized by the Advanced Study Group in Bayesian methods  which is hosted by Pufendorf Institute.

For questions and info please contact Umberto Picchini at umberto@maths.lth.se

October 3, 2015

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Nordic Risk conference 2015 in Lund

The Nordic Chapter of SRA Europe and Lund University Centre of Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM) invites you to participate in the 1st Nordic Chapter Risk Conference on the theme

The Future of Risk Analysis in the Nordic Countries

The opportunity to submit an abstract for a talk or poster closes at October 4th.
Go to the conference Web site for more information.

We hope to see you there

~Ullrika on behalf of SRA and LUCRAM

September 26, 2015

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