On June 30th 2020 I gave a MOOC lecture at the ECORISK 2050 training network about How to become a master of being uncertain in scientific assessments. My intention was to talk about the need to consider and communicate uncertainty in scientific assessments of risk and create a curiosity to know more.
Some recommendations to become a master of being uncertain and help out on future risk assessments:
- Acknowledge that you are always uncertain
- Gain an understanding of concepts of uncertainty
- Separate uncertainty as a concept from how you express it
- Critically evaluate how uncertainty is being treated today
- Learn Bayesian inference
- Learn several methods to deal with uncertainty
- Study scientific literature on the communication and visualisation of uncertainty
To illustrate the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty for the same outcome space : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, we produced these GIFs (click and they will move). You are welcome to use them
Ullrika Sahlin
