Teaching about uncertainty

I have the privilege to teach about uncertainty for different student groups and levels. 

For students in engeering my aim is to introduce them to uncertainty from a subjective perspective which is important for how uncertainty is communicated but also the choices made when working with quantitative approaches to characterise uncertainty. On the quantitative side we start with subjective probability, methods for expert knowledge elicitation, Bayesian models for learning and ways to propagate uncertainty through models. From the qualitative side, we go through the concept of uncertainty, principles to perform uncertainty analysis and communicate uncertainty and ways to think about models and parameters within models. The course is interdisciplinary for a homogenous group of students. This is the course I wish I had as a student. 

For students in environmental science I go through typical frameworks for providing scientific answers to assessment questions. It includes red list assessments, pest risk assessment, environmental (ecological) risk assessment and human health risk assessment. Working with describing what we know and do not know when answering a question is stimulating. The students see that it requires a joint effort by multiple experts to answer the often complex questions, which also raises the demand for being structured,  transparent, ready to justify any decision made in the process and open to discuss and hear the views by others. In this course, the student group is interdisciplinary. A challenge for me is to make it interesting for all, even when I introduce basic concepts or methods. The course is based on my experience gained over the years and is fun to give. 

For PhD students I give a course in Bayesian analysis and decision theory. The group is diverse and my aim is to make them learn new things from their starting level. This is not a course in Bayesian statistics, and half of the course is devoted to uncertainty and decision theory. Compared to undergraduate level, we engage in different perspectives on uncertainty and allow for critical reflections. This interdisciplinary course is therefore useful for students with and without a mathematical background. This is the course I would have liked to have as a PhD student. 

I also teach about uncertainty to professionals working with scientific assessments. This teaching is commission from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). So far, this teaching has been online or as tutorials. We have done a tutorial mapping the two EFSA guidances on uncertainty (Uncertainty analysis and Communication of Uncertainty). Starting 2022, I have together with an international team of experts,  been giving courses in Expert Knowledge Elicitation for EFSA staff and experts. We link the theory and methods for EKE to relevant practical examples taken from EFSA scientific assessments. A challenge with this online teaching is to have clear instructions, keep a flow and give the participants the opportunity to ask questions and discuss. 

 

April 21, 2026

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