Following the succes from 2021 we will continue with series of online talks as part of Bayes@Lund
Welcome to join
Dmytro Perepolkin, Ullrika Sahlin, Rasums Bååth
Aubrey Clayton on Bernoulli’s Fallacy
February 3rd, 2022 at 16 CET on Zoom.
For as long as there has been statistical inference, practitioners have been confusing the probability of data-given-hypothesis and the probability of hypothesis-given-data, the “fallacy of the transposed conditional.” In this talk, I’ll survey the history of this mistake including recent examples in disparate fields, up to and including present-day orthodox statistical practice. I’ll argue that the fallacy represents a larger failure of thinking about probability–which I call “Bernoulli’s Fallacy”–and that the same error underlies much of the current crisis of replication in science. Finally, I’ll share thoughts about what we should do to ensure the statistical methods of the future are built on a solid foundation.