Bayes@Lund 2022

Following the succes from 2021 we will continue with series of online talks as part of Bayes@Lund

Welcome to join


Dmytro Perepolkin, Ullrika Sahlin, Rasums Bååth


Aubrey Clayton  on Bernoulli’s Fallacy

February 3rd, 2022 at 16 CET on Zoom.

For as long as there has been statistical inference, practitioners have been confusing the probability of data-given-hypothesis and the probability of hypothesis-given-data, the “fallacy of the transposed conditional.” In this talk, I’ll survey the history of this mistake including recent examples in disparate fields, up to and including present-day orthodox statistical practice. I’ll argue that the fallacy represents a larger failure of thinking about probability–which I call “Bernoulli’s Fallacy”–and that the same error underlies much of the current crisis of replication in science. Finally, I’ll share thoughts about what we should do to ensure the statistical methods of the future are built on a solid foundation.

About the speaker:
Aubrey teaches graduate courses in the philosophy of probability and has written for publications like the Boston Globe, Nautilus, and Pacific Standard. He technically “worked on Wall Street” but only in the same sense that a hot dog vendor does. He is a parent, a spouse, and a resident of the City of Boston with an Erdős number of three. He dropped out of high school in Dallas to study math and statistics at The University of Chicago, later receiving a doctorate in mathematics from UC Berkeley in 2008.
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December 23, 2021

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