Forecasting with uncertainty
Guess your time in Lundaloppet 2017 and express your uncertainty in your running time in which way you want!
After the race on May 13th in Lund and the actual running times are known, we will evaluate the performances of all predictions. The results will be presented in June, where we will hand out several awards.
Make your forecast here 25 people have guessed their running time. Thank you all for participating.
The challenge is open for anyone
The purposes with the challenge are to highlight what it means to forecast with uncertainty and collect examples of how people prefer to express uncertainty. Any way to express uncertainty is allowed, ranging from qualitative to quantitative, using probabilistic and non-probabilistic descriptions.
The participants are asked to guess their own running time and are therefore basing the forecast on best available (expert’s) knowledge. The nature of the question force them to think about uncertainty as their own, which demonstrate the subjective nature of uncertainty. Finally, participants are asked to rate their confidence in their forecasts, which is a more frequently occurring way to judge strength in predictive knowledge.
The Lundaloppet predictive challenge was previously been given 2014 with great success.
This challenge is organized by the research group UnEviL (Uncertainty and Evidence Lab) at the Centre of Environmental and Climate research and is an activity of the BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.
For more info contact firstname.lastname@example.org