June 2014

Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014

What does it mean to make predictions? Why is it advantageous, if not mandatory, to make predictions in terms of probability distributions? Is a prediction with a wide distribution automatically a worse prediction, compared to one with a narrow distribution? Is it possible to evalaute the accuracy of the prediction of an individual (and perhaps unique) event? Do we as … Continue reading

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What happens when a student wants to learn something cool – like Environmental Evidence Synthesis

This week the first master student working with some of the concepts behind Environmental Evidence Synthesis were examinated. We are impressed by the speed she has from scratch learned Bayesian modelling, got to know R and OpenBugs, and ended up with applying Bayesian Evidence Synthesis on Conservation planning problems. Below I post the popular summary of Yf Jiangs master’s thesis … Continue reading

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Summary from the Bayesian mini-conference 2014

In April BECC hosted the half-day conference Bayes@Lund2014 with the purpose to bring together researchers at Lund University working with or interested in Bayesian methods. The conference was arranged by Ullrika Sahlin, researcher at Lund University Centre of Environmental and Climate research (CEC), and Rasmus Bååth, PhD-student in Cognitive Science. Presenters from Ecology, Mathematical statistics, Philosophy, Statistics and Risk analysis … Continue reading

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