The project Gaming for better decision making was one of the winners at the Climate-Kic Nordic Ideation Day in Aarhus August 23 2017.
Ullrika was there pitching it in front of a jury. Great day with a lot of positive feedback and useful connections.
Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is a project with the aim to develop a computer game that motivates people to learn about uncertainty analysis and decision making in an entertaining way. The game will explain the benefits of expressing uncertainty when making predictions and possible ways to make decisions under uncertainty.
The game will include prediction and decision problems from daily life that players can relate to, and a fictional game scenario that involves decision making under climate uncertainty, where there is a need to consider the balance between social, economic, and environmental impacts. A case-study on climate decisions under uncertainty will be developed on flood protection in the municipality of Vejle, Denmark. We will benefit from previous experience in serious gaming at Aarhus University.
By the end of 2017 we will have an operational game prototype.
The game is expected to result in
– a greater interest to learn more about uncertainty among experts and decision makers
– a wider use of subjective probability for uncertainty
– a tool to initiate discussions on how to adapt uncertainty analysis to your decision problem
Partners: Lund University, DTU, Aarhus University, Vejle municipality
People (to be updated):
Ullrika Sahlin, Associate Professor, Lund University, Sweden. Uncertainty analysis in risk and environmental impact assessment.
Anthony O’Hagan Emeritus Professor, the University of Sheffield, UK. Eliciting expert knowledge using subjective probability; e-learning to train experts to express uncertainty accurately and rigorously.
Igor Linkov, Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University. Expert on decision making with applications on climate adaption and development of serious games of decision making.
Igor Kozine, Senior Researcher and Miroslava Tegeltija, PhD Student. Technical University of Denmark (Danmarks Tekniske Universitet). Quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches to uncertainty representation.
Matthias C. M. Troffaes. Expert on decision making under uncertainty with imprecise probability; applications in engineering and environmental sciences; avid gamer. Associate Professor (Reader), Durham University, UK.
External reviewer:
EFSA, Assessment and Methodological Support Unit, Olaf Mosbach-Schulz. Implementing uncertainty analysis in food and feed risk assessment. Training programs on probabilistic judgements for external experts.